A new study highlights the escalating economic impact of type 2 diabetes on China’s workforce, with projections indicating that the burden will intensify by 2050 unless effective prevention and management measures are implemented, particularly targeting younger workers and women.
A study in the Journal of Global Health says type 2 diabetes is imposing a growing drag on China’s working-age population, with lost productivity and wider economic costs set to rise further by mid-century. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study, United Nations population projections and China’s chronic disease surveillance system, the researchers estimate that the condition affected tens of millions of adults of working age in 2021 and was already cutting deeply into both working lives and national output.
The analysis places China in a broader global context in which diabetes remains one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing non-communicable disease burdens. The International Diabetes Federation says 536.6 million adults worldwide were living with diabetes in 2021, while another recent global burden study estimated 529 million cases that year and projected continued growth through 2050. Separate China-focused work has shown the country’s diabetes case load rising sharply since 1990, reflecting both population ageing and a sustained increase in prevalence.
For China alone, the Journal of Global Health paper estimates that 39.8 million working-age men and 23.3 million working-age women were living with type 2 diabetes in 2021. The authors calculated that, over their remaining working years, men lost 53.42 million productivity-adjusted life years, or PALYs, and women lost 33.56 million. PALYs combine the loss of life from premature death with the loss of productivity from illness, absenteeism and reduced participation in the labour force. On a per-person basis, the study found women lost slightly more than men in 2021, although total losses were higher among men because more men were affected and men face a larger labour force exposure.
The economic consequences were substantial. The study estimates that type 2 diabetes in working-age men accounted for about $1.04tn in gross domestic product losses in 2021, while the figure for women was about $650bn. Losses were heaviest among younger adults, particularly those aged 30 to 34, because diabetes at an earlier age can cut short future working years and reduce earnings potential over a longer period. The paper also found that, although per-person years of life lost and PALYs declined over time as survival improved, the total burden rose sharply because the number of people with diabetes increased so quickly.
Looking ahead, the researchers project that the working-age diabetes population in China will keep rising through 2050, reaching 56.1 million men and 32.5 million women, before total lifetime productivity losses level off only slightly towards the end of the forecast period. Annual GDP losses are still expected to climb through 2050. The authors warn that delayed retirement policies could intensify the problem by keeping people with diabetes in the workforce for longer, increasing the years over which they are exposed to productivity loss unless healthier working lives improve at the same time.
The study’s scenario testing suggests there is room to limit the damage, but only if prevention and management improve. A 1% annual decline in absenteeism, presenteeism and labour-force dropout would substantially reduce projected lifetime losses, while a similar rise would add millions of lost PALYs. The authors argue that China’s retirement reform should be paired with stronger diabetes prevention, earlier diagnosis and better long-term care, especially for younger workers and women, who the paper says face distinct risks tied to both health and labour-market participation.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical judgment, advice, diagnosis, or treatment.
