Research presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes meeting predicts a significant increase in worldwide type 1 diabetes cases by 2049, highlighting the need for improved healthcare planning globally.
Research to be presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes meeting in Milan suggests the global burden of type 1 diabetes will keep rising over the next quarter-century, with the number of people living with the condition projected to reach 12.1 million by 2049. The DIAMOND-T1D model, led by Anders Green of Steno Diabetes Center Odense in Denmark, estimates that figure would represent a 29% increase from 9.4 million in 2025.
The same model forecasts that annual new diagnoses will climb by 14% over the period, from about 530,000 cases in 2025 to 605,000 in 2049. The researchers say the biggest absolute rises will be seen in high-income countries, including the UK, where the number of people living with type 1 diabetes is projected to increase from 313,725 to 420,551, and the US, where it is expected to rise from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235.
The findings also point to widening needs in lower-income countries, where access to insulin, glucose monitoring and survival are expected to improve, driving the fastest proportional growth. In Tanzania, the model predicts annual new cases will almost double, from 3,275 to 6,177, while the number of people living with the disease is projected to rise from 19,101 to 39,673.
The researchers say accurate estimates are especially important because data on type 1 diabetes remain limited in many low- and middle-income countries. They say the model, which incorporates historical patterns of insulin availability and has been validated against registry data from Denmark and Scotland, could help governments plan services and support the World Health Organisation’s Global Diabetes Compact. The authors also note that their prevalence estimates are lower than some other sources because they use more cautious assumptions about survival, particularly among older people and in poorer countries.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical judgment, advice, diagnosis, or treatment.
