Nigeria moves towards more dynamic sugary drinks tax to combat rising diabetes rates

Nigeria plans to overhaul its sugary drinks tax system, linking levies to retail prices to encourage reformulation and fund health initiatives amidst rising diabetes prevalence and debate over effective health measures.

Nigeria’s fight over sugary drinks is no longer simply a row about a flat tax that barely shifts prices. In June, the Senate approved a plan to scrap the long-running N10-a-litre excise on sugar-sweetened beverages and replace it with a levy tied to retail price, while setting aside part of the proceeds for prevention programmes, primary care and health cover for poorer households. The change matters because lawmakers say the present duty has been worn down by inflation and gives manufacturers little reason to reduce sugar in what they sell.

The health case rests on a disease burden that is large, but often quoted without much explanation. The 11.2 million figure commonly used in Nigerian debate comes from a systematic review and meta-analysis that put diabetes prevalence at 5.77 per cent, drawing on 23 studies involving 14,650 people. Using Nigeria’s 2017 population estimate, the authors said that worked out at about one in 17 adults. They also found marked regional differences, from 3.0 per cent in the north-west to 9.8 per cent in the south-south, with unhealthy diets, older age and urban living among the leading risk factors.

The Senate’s new framework, reported by TheCable, came through the Customs, Excise Tariff, etc. (Amendment) Bill after a report presented by Sani Musa, chair of the Senate finance committee. Instead of a fixed charge per litre, the model would allow the finance minister to set a percentage levy based on shelf price. Senators argued that such a system would keep pace with inflation, better reflect product pricing and give companies a stronger incentive to cut sugar levels. They also pointed to Nigeria Customs Service figures showing that the existing duty raised more than N108.6 billion between 2022 and September 2025.

Some public-health campaigners want the country to be far more ambitious. At a Senate hearing, Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare Muhammad Pate argued that the levy should be strong enough to raise retail prices by at least 20 per cent, with 40 per cent of the money ring-fenced for tackling non-communicable diseases. “Failing to act will saddle Nigeria with an overwhelming disease burden in the next decade,” he said, according to ThisNigeria. The same report said advocates cited experience in Mexico, South Africa and the United Kingdom, where sizeable taxes on sugary drinks were followed by lower consumption and widespread product reformulation.

Public reaction, however, suggests that price alone will not settle the matter. ThisNigeria quoted a 19-year-old student in Kubwa, Abuja, saying: “I take soft drinks almost every day. If they become more expensive, I will cut down.” Another student was more doubtful, arguing that higher taxes by themselves would not change habits unless healthier drinks were easier to find and cheaper to buy. Those arguments echo objections raised by parts of the organised private sector, which warned lawmakers last year about the effect of a tougher levy on prices, production costs and jobs. The Senate’s answer was not to drop the idea, but to call for continued engagement with industry alongside clearer labelling, nutrition awareness campaigns and more responsible marketing.

Even so, lowering sugar does not automatically settle the health question if manufacturers simply swap it for more sweeteners. The World Health Organization advised in 2023 against using non-sugar sweeteners to control body weight or reduce the risk of non-communicable disease in the general population, saying a systematic review found no long-term benefit in reducing body fat and pointed to possible undesirable effects from prolonged use, including increased risks of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and mortality in adults. WHO said the recommendation was conditional and did not apply to people already living with diabetes, but its broader message was clear: reducing the overall sweetness of diets matters more than replacing one sweet taste with another.

Nigeria does already have a legal framework for those ingredients. The country’s Non-Nutritive Sweeteners in Food Products Regulations 2021, recorded in the Federal Republic of Nigeria Official Gazette and catalogued by ECOLEX, bar the manufacture, import, sale or advertisement of foods and drinks containing non-nutritive sweeteners except where the rules permit it. They also require that any sweetener used in food must be one listed in Schedule I and that products containing such ingredients carry a label declaration. In other words, the next phase of reformulation is not only a technical challenge for food companies, but also a regulatory and enforcement test.

The wider diabetes picture adds urgency. WHO says the number of people living with diabetes worldwide rose from 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022, and that treatment coverage is weakest in low- and middle-income countries. In 2022, 59 per cent of adults aged 30 and over living with diabetes were not taking medication. In Nigeria, the meta-analysis behind the 11.2 million estimate described that number as a prevalence-based calculation rather than a count of diagnosed patients, an important distinction in a country where many cases are likely to go undetected or untreated.

For policymakers, that leaves a harder but clearer task than the rhetoric around “healthier” drinks sometimes suggests. A stronger sugary-drinks tax may push companies to alter recipes and may raise money for prevention, but only if the rate is meaningful and the proceeds are visibly used for health. And if reformulation depends heavily on non-sugar sweeteners, Nigeria will still have to grapple with WHO’s warning that the safest long-term goal is not a sweeter diet by different means, but a less sweet diet altogether.