Research predicts a significant increase in new cases and overall prevalence of type 1 diabetes over the next two decades, with the fastest growth in low-income countries and implications for healthcare access and insulin provision.
A global rise in type 1 diabetes is likely over the next two decades, according to research due to be presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes annual meeting in Milan. The study, led by Anders Green of the Steno Diabetes Centre Odense in Denmark, uses the DIAMOND-T1D model to estimate how incidence, prevalence and deaths may change through 2049.
The model suggests the number of new cases diagnosed each year will climb from 530,024 in 2025 to 605,058 in 2049. It also projects that the number of people living with type 1 diabetes will increase from 9.4 million to 12.2 million over the same period.
The burden is not expected to fall evenly across countries. The research indicates that most people with type 1 diabetes already live in high-income and middle-income nations, but the fastest relative growth in prevalence is likely in low-income countries. The report also finds that children and teenagers accounted for 42% of new cases in 2025, underscoring the continuing impact of the disease in younger age groups.
Deaths linked to type 1 diabetes are also projected to rise, from 353,449 in 2025 to 531,095 by 2049. The authors said the outlook highlights the need to improve access to insulin and raise the quality of care, especially in settings with fewer resources. A separate paper published in Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice this year estimated 9.5 million people were already living with type 1 diabetes globally in 2025, reinforcing the picture of a disease that is expanding in scale and remains unevenly distributed.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical judgment, advice, diagnosis, or treatment.
